Friday 14 May 2010

The Coalition

So the 2010 general election is over and it's produced a result that causes great dilema for the UK's Liberal Democrat supporting center left. Do the maths, look at the viewpoints and there really was 2 options - to let the Conservatives govern as a minority, or to enter a coalition with them?

There's no doubt that the desired outcome for Social Liberals across the country was an alliance with Labour. They are progressive, the Tories are not. But alas it was not to be, Labour didn't really want to deal, they have no stomach left for government and are looking inwards, facing a leadership contest and wondering where it all went wrong (here's a hint - Iraq...though the seeds of discontent were there a long time ago).

So we had to look to the Tories. The Liberal Democrat dilema was - do we deal with the hated enemy? Or do we let that enemy rule as a minority, bearing in mind we or Labour can't afford another election yet and they can....

So they chose to deal with the devil. Makes sense really, though the party is unhappy at least things will begin to get done, particuarly on civil liberties, that we approve of. Labour had become far too authoritarian for our liking and we may as well make use of agreements with the Tories in this area to undo the damage done. And hey, scrapping the 3rd runway at Heathrow ain't too bad either.

To do anything other than this would backfire in the long run.

For a start the Tories campaigned against a hung parliment....well they won't be able to do that again in a hurry as those 'hung parliment party' videos now look laughable and Mr Cameron has already agreed that Nick Clegg is not the 'joke' he once he desribed him as.

Labour called Lib Dem policies 'loony'. Well it looks like some of these 'loony' policies are about to become fact. And if they work...well Labour using that argument won't have the same effect again.

'Vote Clegg get Brown' said the Tories. Well that didn't happen....

The point is that the Liberal Democrats are now serious buisness, and alot of the old tatics from the Tories and Labour won't work any more. And now it's firmly established there are 3 main parties in British politics, not just 2. If the Lib Dems had let the Tories go it alone it would have reflected upon them badly, being seen as scared of being in government and being all talk, no action.

Problem for the Lib Dems now is that are going to be seen as the outsider anymore, people really need to be convinced that Lib Dem policies are good for them, it's not just a protest vote anymore!

So policies. Well lets get straight to the point - compromise. We have to do it, so lets get as much as we can. Better to be in government exerting influence then outside it moaning! But part of this compromise is going to be dissapointment that we aren't getting our way as much as we'd like, and there is bound to be some issues where we are very unhappy at what the Tories demand and force us into. The Lib Dem leadership really need to emphasise where we are getting 'good' things done and where we are preventing the 'bad' things the Tories want. That way we maintain distinctions.....it is important this is seen as a coalition of 2 parties, not just the Tories leading the way. Plus when it comes to an election the Lib Dems really need to be able to point out the differences and why having them in government has been to the British peoples advantage. I can see the flyers now....list of policies from the Lib Dems with big green ticks were they got it through and lists of ideas from the Tories with big red X's where they said no!

The Tories themselves are a divided party, let there be no mistake about that. David Cameron is not as popular as the right-wing media would have us believe. The Tory party is basically a coalition of various right-wingers, and David Cameron has their support because he was a trillion times more electable than the last 3 leaders they've tried. Micheal Howard? Iain Duncan Smith? William Hague? No wonder the Tories went for this guy! He got them elected but they aren't happy, many were expecting a landslide and past poll ratings of 40% plus indicacted this may be so...but alas 36% and no majority and here we are, how long before the grumbling becomes more serious?

Here's some advice for the Lib Dem campaign managers and tactians - take written notes every time a Tory backbencher speaks out against Cameron/the Coalition/the Lib Dems! For there will be moaning from the hard right, and it will reflect badly on them at election time, and it gives people in Tory-Lib Dem marginals to pick Lib Dems as the 'reasonable' choice versus the hard right-wing choice. For that what this coalition is going to be all about - being reasonable, being seen to act in the intrest of the British people and proving why Lib Dems in government is a good thing!

And for us on the center left...time to grit our teeth, get on with it and make our voices heard. Lets not be too optomistic, fact is the Tories are far apart from us on alot of things and we simply won't be able to get all the great thigns we want done. But lets not be too negative yet....wait and see how the Tories deal with their internal divisions. Chances are if we remain behind Nick Clegg and the Lib Dems are seen as unified whilst Tories deal with splits amongst themselves then it will be the Lib Dems who against all odds will come out of this the best, looking like a natural choice for people who want reasonable good governance.

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